| Home | E-Submission | Sitemap | Editorial Office |  
top_img
J Health Info Stat > Volume 40(3); 2015 > Article
J Health Info Stat 2015;40(3):43-53.
Original Article : Forecasting Mortality Indexes Allowing for Economic Growth Dependence
Sang Il Lee
ABSTRACT
Objectives:
In this study, we introduce a new forecasting methodology for future mortality rate to capture the long-run dynamics between mortality rates and economic variables, including real gross domestic product (GDP) and real GDP per capita.
Methods:
Using mortality data for South Korean males and females, we show the presence of long-run equilibrium relationships between macroeconomic variables and mortality rates, by implementing the Johansen cointegration methodology. Then their dynamics is modeled by using vector error correction models (VECMs).
Results:
The VECM forecasts show the significant impact of including economic variables on forecasting future mortality, compared with the forecasts obtained by a model with no economic factors, i.e., a random walk with drift.
Conclusions:
Our framework provides a methodology to model the dynamics of mortality rate in consideration of economic variables.
Key words: Mortality rate, Lee-Carter model, Real gross domestic product (GDP), Real GDP per capita, Vector error correction model, VECM
TOOLS
PDF Links  PDF Links
Full text via DOI  Full text via DOI
Download Citation  Download Citation
Share:      
METRICS
1,398
View
24
Download
Related article
Editorial Office
The Korean Society of Health Informatics and Statistics
680 gukchaebosang-ro, Jung-gu, Daegu, 41944, Korea
E-mail: koshis@hanmail.net
About |  Browse Articles |  Current Issue |  For Authors and Reviewers
Copyright © The Korean Society of Health Informatics and Statistics.                 Developed in M2PI